Following Nakamura Sumire

[silviu22]

Sumire lost her first preliminary game vs Sakaguchi Takayama in Agon-Kiriyama Cup on Feb 24th. So she seems to be 2:1 in February. As far as I can tell, she is active in 3 tournaments

[silviu22]

As far as I can tell, these are her current tournaments using data from https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/. She is still active in tournaments with black name:

• Meijin: Won her 1st game in Pre-selection C vs Yamada Wakio 7p (2671 rating on goratings.org) on 12/26. Won the final of the Preliminary C against Furuta Naoyoshi 4p on Feb 10, 2020. Lost her game vs Horimoto Mitsunari on March 5th, 2020. Bracket: Kansai/Chubu, Frame 4 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/meijin/046.html.
• Gosei: Won 1st game vs Yanagawa Hiromasa 7p in Prelim C. Lost her game vs Wataru Muramoto on March 26th. See frame 7 of Kansai/Chubu section in https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/gosei/046.html.
• Women's Senko(Saikyo): Won her 1st preliminary game on Dec 23rd, 2019 against Takatomi Kayami 3p. Won against Ayako Ono 1p on Feb 10, 2020. Her next opponent will be someone nicknamed "Exit". Bracket: West 2, Frame 3 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/senko/005.html.
• 69 Oza (Kings Cup) Won her 1st game in prelims against Kikkawa Hajime (2876) on March 3rd, 2020. Commentary by BadukDoctor on this game: https://youtu.be/p9m8gZaksrw. She will play Sano Takahata next (or is it Sano Takatsugu [2829]?). See frame 1 of Kansai/Chubu: https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/oza/069.html
• Tengen 47: Lost 1st game in prelims vs Takei Takashi (7p - 3044) on Apr 4, 2020. See Frame 7 of Kansai/Chubu at https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/tengen/047.html

Edits:
[Mar 29, 2020] Was eliminated from Gosei 46 after losing to Wataru Muramoto.
[Apr 4, 2020] Was eliminated from Tengen 47 after losing to Takei Takashi.

[Ferran]

against... Takashi Takei? I hope I got the right transcription. 7 dan. Tengen tournament.

[Ferran]

Two games that seem to come from the same event, some sort of under-30 cup I haven't been able to find.

1. Against Xie Yimin, with a predictable result. However, if my mobile-phone leela has it right (very very basic), Nakamura-ss was leading from about move 40 to about move 110 or so. Which is... not bad. Incidentally, how is that someone with the W/L ratio of sensei Xie Yimin has been 6th dan for 8 years already?



2. To compensate, a win, against... Kato Chieh [I think the reading's right] ? Also a shodan, from Gifu. At some sort of under-30 cup I haven't been able to find.



Take care.

[Elom]

Perhaps it's a bit late for a Deductive Durian--middle ground. And if your not a go expert. maybe ten to twenty year projections might be by nature so unpredictable as to turn to exercise fatuous, I don't know. But then again, now more than ever might be the time for such daydreaming.

I used age-strength comparisons between Nakamure 1p and a few other pros, using both the international and national rating lists (each had advantages and drawbacks I think). To make some approximate--and I do mean very approximate, considering who's doing it--estimates of her strength growth. Because she's so young I could only attempt direct deductions one way. I borrowed mamumau0413's strength projection ratings and internationalised them as it was the easiest way I could think of to show this quickly.

You can challenge for international titles in your

late teens Class S Shin Jinseo, Ke Jie
early twenties Class A Shibano Toramanu (class A-)
late twenties Class B Ichiriki Ryo, (class B+) Iyama Yuta (class B+), Yu Zhiying (trajectory before she focused on uni more), Choi Jung (class B-), Nakamura Sumire (Class B-)
Class C Ueno Asami (Class C-)
Class D Fujisawa Rina (class D+, about a whole class stronger than mamu's initial estimate), Ida Atsushi (class D+)


This does seem to corroborate what her teacher and Japanese pros have said, so it's safe to say that while I fully sympathise with the caution of some early on, it does seem to me that they can now rest easy.

In fact, the only reason I see to worry is that she's appears to be the only Japanese professional I know of who is likely to be internationally competent in the late 2030's. Korea seems to suffering from a 'hollowing out' a bit, though not to the extent of Japan in the 90's but I do remember Cho Hyeyeon mentioning a worrying situation of baduk in korea begining to have effect. Someone more knowledgeable might know more if it's right to say they could learn from each other? Nakamura Sumire and Fujisawa Rina seem to show so, although perhaps that's best a separate thread .

edit: perhaps this should be moved to the other thread (applying lessons from Iyama Yuta's ones early on)

[John Fairbairn]

At some sort of under-30 cup I haven't been able to find.

It was the O-Kage Cup, and it was Kato Chie. And the event is for under 31s, not 30 (i.e. 30 and under), so it's Xie Yimin's last chance in this event.

Actually Sumire did better than that. She also beat Nyu Eiko 2-dan and so was meeting Xie in the Group Final.

As to why Xie is still 6-dan: you have to win 120 games for promotion at that level. I haven't checked how close she is.

[Ferran]

It was the O-Kage Cup,

I suspected it could be one of those, but I didn't find enough data to be sure. SL only had the name in kana. Does anyone know if there's a reason for that? I could register and modify it, but I don't want to break anything.

And the event is for under 31s, not 30 (i.e. 30 and under)

Well... Another thing to change at SL, then.

As to why Xie is still 6-dan: you have to win 120 games for promotion at that level. I haven't checked how close she is.

I don't know how close she is now, but acording to The Power Report last February, she won 31 games last year. A fourth of the quota in an eighth of the time. I suppose there's some kind of slump between promoting from prize money (according to Wiki, at least) and being the 10th player with most wins in the whole Nihon Kiin, but it still feels quirky.

Take care.

[ez4u]

Wins in ladies-only events do not count for promotion AFAIK. So you cannot go by the figures in the "most wins" lists and so on.

[Ferran]

video about an online game, Nakamura Sumire vs. Bai Xinhui, Taiwanese. I could barely find anything about her.

Take care

[trout]

Here is Nakamura Sumire vs Bai Xinhui 1st game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-uJC7x3k6s

Analysis by Kim Seongryong(Korean).

[silviu22]

Here's her status as far as I can tell in the Japanese tournaments (Black=still in it, Red=eliminated, Pink=did not participate). The dates are for my reference to know when to look again:

Male+Female tournaments:

• Kisei 45 - eliminated in Jan 2020. Kisei 46 should start in Oct 2020.
• Meijin 46 - eliminated Mar 5, 2020. Meijin 47 should start in Dec 2020
• Honimbo 76 - eliminated Nov 2019. Honimbo 77 should start in Oct 2020
• Oza 69 - Won 1st game in Prelim C on 3/12. Won 2nd game vs Sano Guizhao(?) on 6/18. Will play Gao Lin Zhenghong Takabayashi Masahiro 7p (2638) next. She defeated him on Oct 24, 2019 in Honimbo 76 C prelims, so I'm sure he will be looking to get his revenge this time. See frame 1 of Kansai/Chubo from https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/oza/069.html. Oza 70 should start in March 2021
• Tengen 47 - eliminated Apr 2, 2020. Tengen 48 should start in Apr 2021
• Judan 60 - should start in Sept 2020
• Ago/Kiryama 27 - eliminated on Feb 24, 2020 by Sakaguci?. Kiryama 28 - should start in Feb 2021
• Ryusei 29 - eliminated on April 22, 2019. Ryusei 30 should start in April 2020?
• NHK - Has pretty restrictive criteria (no preliminaries). She will probably have to win a women's title to qualify.
• Shinjin (King of New Stars) 45 - eliminated in Dec 2019. New Rookie 46 should start in Nov 2020.
• Hiroshima 14 - eliminated in Sept 2019. New Rookie 47 should start in Sept 2020
• Thanks Cup 11 - eliminated on Apr 6, 2020 by Xie Yimmin. Tanks Cup 12 should start in April 2021
• Okan (Crown) CUp 61 - did not seem to participate? Okan 62 should start in June 2020.
• SGW Nakajima 2 - did not participate? Nakajima 3 should start in Sept 2020

Women-only tournaments:

• Honimbo 39 - lost in 1st round of prelims (Nov 4, 2019). Honimbo 40 should start Oct 2020.
• Tachiaoi (Aizu Hospital 7) - lost on Jan 23, 2013 after winning first two rounds. Tachiaoi (Aizu Hospital) 8 should start Oct 2020.
• Kisei 23 - lost in 1st round of main bracket on Sept 30, 2019. She did well to win the prelims. (I think it's the only tournament where she managed this performance). Kisei 24 should start July 2020.
• Senko/Saikyo 5th - Still in it. She won in Dec 2019 and on Feb 13, 2020 (last one vs Ono Ayako, 1p (2682)). Will play Mariko Deguci 1p Chihoro Choujo 1p next. See https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/senko/005.html, block West 2
• Camachi 1 she lost in 1st round (Jan 13, 2020). Hakata/Camachi 2 should start in Dec 2020.

I think her 2020 record is 3-4 or 3-5 now after her recent win in Oza 69. Her record is 7-10 this year according to John Fairbarn.

[John Fairbairn]

Her current official record is 7-10. She's not eligible for the Okan (Nagoya Branch only). Gaolin Zenghong is Takabayashi Masahiro and she beat him a long time ago. You are missing the Hakata Kamachi Cup, etc etc. The Nihon Ki-in site has not been updated during the lockdown.

[silviu22]

Thank you, John. I will update my previous post with your information. I don't know where else I can look to get this information. The Nihon Ki-in site is the only place I know for Japanese preliminaries. Where do you get these personal official records?

[John Fairbairn]

Where do you get these personal official records?

Reading magazines and newspapers.

[Ferran]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxejXeISZ7M

Do I understand the video description right and Nakamura 1p has been seeded into the qualifiers?

Take care