mumps wrote:It is clearly the exception, as it's the only one that I remember coming before Council in my time (but that's only a few years).
There were three that I was aware of in 2009 alone, and you were president at the time. Ask Geoff.
mumps wrote:One reason for rejecting the idea was that it would imply reducing the grade for more than 50% of our existing dan players and insufficient statistical justification was provided for doing so.
Citing the theoretical basis for the GoR system as 2100 for 1 dan wasn't judged a statistical justification.
Thank you, that's useful. What is the theoretical basis / statistical justification for the current system of moving the shodan bar? How exactly is the 1 dan mark defined (IIRC, it's the "average GoR of all players entering themselves as 1d", but I'm not sure the specifics). If this is true, then is it also true that if all 1k players entered as 1d this shodan bar could drop by 40-50 GoR points?
What would constitute sufficient statistical justification for the reset? I would be willing to work at producing a fair bit of data and reports if I had a benchmark of what evidence would be required for this.
mumps wrote:My personal view is that GoR has a deflationary impact of about 4-5 points per year, so what we should actually be doing is adding about 60 points to people between 1990 and 2090, gradually tapering above and below that level, and changing the GoR system so that it's no longer deflationary.
I agree with the deflationary impact. There has been some (but apparently insufficient) effort to mitigate that in the GoR system. However, your proposal seems at odds with recent decisions and BGA policy. If we wish to add 60 points "across the board" to players by 20xx, then we should encourage resets into dan ranks as this will achieve precisely this over time. Regardless of how these 60 points are injected, it will still make our players "weaker" than their equivalent international peers, which also seems to be something we would wish to avoid. Unless we can convince other countries to do the same (which I think it would be naive to believe there's a hope of doing), we'll end up with some of the weakest 2100 players in Europe.
Changing the GoR system would be great, but AFAIK Geoff and others have raised this to Alex directly and the EGF AGMs indirectly to no avail. I understand that no country has much impact on GoR system policy. In honesty this is probably a good thing - European-wide rating systems should not be easily influenced by individual nations - however, without a system in place that seems to be addressing the efficacy of the system, I can't see GoR realigning itself any time soon either.
I think, looking at past performances and having looked into about 12 years of tournament history when I was in council, that European shodan now is genuinely stronger than it was 10 years ago, and perhaps 70 GoR points is a reasonable estimate of how much stronger. It seems either we are happy with GoR for shodan drifting, so that shodan is equivalently the same strength, or we would rather 2100 represent the value of shodan and need to either mass-adjust players up 60-70 points (as in your proposal, this seems theoretically ideal but practically I can't see how it is feasible) or to accept that it's harder to hit shodan now than it used to be, and let people's grades drop.
Issues as I see them:
* Current GoR system has ratings dropping for people maintaining their strength at dan levels
* Current GoR system can only handle resets to 2x00 ratings, which are not in line with the vast majority of European country dan grades
* GoR values for dan ranks vary by large amounts across different countries
* Actual playing strength represented by the same GoR varies by medium+ amounts across different countries
* The GoR value for 1 dan is not defined by playing strength, but by the unregulated professed rank within the UK, which may or may not be deflationary / inflationary in and of itself
Issues with resolving the issues
* We have no way of assessing actual strength of individuals, as both the player in question and an assessor will have their strength changing over time - there's no static anchor
* There is no way of easily regulating the professed rank when it's +/- 1 stone, nor is that particularly helpful to do
* Without regulating the professed rank, there is no other way of evaluating an "appropriate" shodan bar
* Without more international participation by each country, it is hard to gain a view of how closely correlated the dan ranks are of different countries
* Without more international participation by each country, it is not easy to control for or adjust ratings to correlate different countries
* We need co-operation with whoever is in charge of the GoR system to address the feasibility of resetting to GoRs other than 2x00