+40 > +10 > -20. Trying and failing costs 30 points, trying and succeeding gains 30 points. So, with those numbers if you think you have > 50% chance of killing, you should go ahead and try to kill.
However, usually the payoff is not so even. Sometimes it's +90/+10/+8, in which case you should basically always try to kill. But sometimes it's +20/+10/-40-- failing costs 5 times as much as succeeding, so you need to be at least 80% sure you can kill or the attempt will lose points on average.
To make a good decision, you have to figure out how much a success gains, how much a failure costs, and how likely you are to succeed. The first two require counting (possibly a lot of counting), and the latter requires that you be well calibrated (do you in fact kill 8 out of 10 groups that you're 80% sure you can kill?). Oh, and figuring out how much a failure costs generally requires positional judgment. Sometimes success does, too-- sometimes, keeping a group dead can cost nearly as much as killing it gained.
I think this would actually lead to *more* counting for me, because I'd have to estimate the score both ways for many more decisions than I do currently (currently I only do that in very close games).
Finally, there will still be times when you vastly prefer a small, safe win/loss over a drastic win. E.g., you could be playing the last round of a hahn style tournament and as long as you don't lose big, there's no way for the guy in 2nd place to catch up.