138. Pancake 4d vs Loons 1d

Loons · Post by **Loons** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:55 pm

I remember - not in any detail - that "there was a study" where people were put in a chamber with a switch that did nothing and a light that turned on and off randomly, and people (I think self-described optimists?) were more likely to wrongly conclude that the switch was affecting the light somehow.

Edit:
Out of interest, I appear to be crudely alluding to Alloy and Abramson 1979 which some modern people do seem to be contesting. Thank you google scholar for understanding "lightbulb optimism realism".

Kirby · Post by **Kirby** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:47 pm

Loons wrote:I remember - not in any detail - that "there was a study" where people were put in a chamber with a switch that did nothing and a light that turned on and off randomly, and people (I think self-described optimists?) were more likely to wrongly conclude that the switch was affecting the light somehow.

Edit:
Out of interest, I appear to be crudely alluding to Alloy and Abramson 1979 which some modern people do seem to be contesting. Thank you google scholar for understanding "lightbulb optimism realism".

Thanks, Loons. That's an interesting idea for a study. It looks like it costs money to buy the paper, but I wonder if the research included an alternative: construct an environment in which the button has a correlation with the observable effect, which is difficult to ascertain. I would hypothesize that the "depressed" subjects would more likely feel that there was no correlation. In this case, the non-depressed subjects would be "more realistic" (it seems to me, anyway).

hyperpape · Post by **hyperpape** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:05 am

Kirby wrote:
Bill Spight wrote:
ez4u wrote:I don't know. I wondered the same thing. He was quoted in a book. I searched his papers available on-line, but could not find the source to clarify it!

Both claims are supported by psychological research.

It's not clear to me how to scientifically quantify what might be "realistic", because this seems to be a subjective term.

I've never read the research in question, but it's not so hard to test. One way is to give objective tests of some sort and compare self-evaluation vs. actual performance. I know some studies on self-evaluation work this way. Another way is to use statistics: if optimists think they're in the 75% percentile on average, then they are almost certainly wrong, as a group.

Luckily, you don't have to come up with a complete measure of realism, just a few handy tests.

Kirby · Post by **Kirby** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:45 am

hyperpape wrote:...
I've never read the research in question, but it's not so hard to test. One way is to give objective tests of some sort and compare self-evaluation vs. actual performance. I know some studies on self-evaluation work this way. Another way is to use statistics: if optimists think they're in the 75% percentile on average, then they are almost certainly wrong, as a group.

Luckily, you don't have to come up with a complete measure of realism, just a few handy tests.

I see. Of the two methods you mention, I prefer comparing self-evaluation to actual performance, since particular individuals could very well be in the 75th percentile on average. Anyway, I don't feel like "realism" is limited to self-evaluation, so maybe such a test could be extended to evaluation of any particular area, compared to actual results in a particular area. For example, I suppose if somebody has a particular evaluation on what will happen when the government does X, their evaluation could be compared to the actual result of X when it happens to get a measure for how realistic a person is in their evaluation.

If we use this as a method of quantifying realism, though, it seems to me that people might be deemed as "realists" depending on the subject matter. For example, if I know a lot about the weather, I can potentially better predict the weather, and be a "realist" when it comes to weather predictions, while perhaps being far from a realist when it comes to predicting other things, such as how well a basketball team will do this season. On the other hand, if I know a lot about basketball, I might be better at predicting that than the weather.

Without doing any particular study, I'd guess that it'd be intuitive to hypothesize that "those that know enough about X are realists when it comes to X", at least compared to the general public. Coming back to the example you've provided, if one knows well about oneself, perhaps one can be more of a realist when evaluating one's abilities.

Maybe we can accept this measure of realism, and say that a realist is one that knows more about a particular area of study. Then, if we say in general, a realist is slightly depressed, from earlier posts, can we guess that this could lead to the assumption that "those that know more about a particular area become slightly depressed"? :mrgreen:

Perhaps, as they say, "ignorance is bliss".

Loons · Post by **Loons** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:29 am

A very interesting direction of this with respect to go may be- the feeling of getting stronger vs the rate at which you're getting stronger (ie for different training regimena*).

It may be worth checking the abstract of that paper (which is of course public and cursorily contains what they did and what they found) as my memory of it was quite misleading.

Anyway- we could perhaps pursue this in another thread. Sorry pancake

.

*Evidently this is how you pluralise regimen. Regimes may have been a better word.

hyperpape · Post by **hyperpape** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:20 am

The dunning-kreuger effect is relevant here. A sufficiently large lack of skill impairs your ability to recognize your lack of skill.

Bill Spight · Post by **Bill Spight** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:53 am

I did not mean to hijack this thread. Sorry.

Anyway, here is what I recall about the psychological research. As for people who are slightly depressed being more realistic, I only saw something in a magazine like Psychology Today or Scientific American in the mid-1970s. It did not have to do with self-assessment, but with physical perception. As for overconfidence, there are a number of studies. For instance, if you give people a test and ask what percentage of questions they got right, they tend to overestimate the percentage. (Curiously, the effect does not seem to apply when you ask them how many questions they got right.

) If you ask people to assess their ability in some field they tend to overestimate their ability unless they are competent enough to know how incompetent they are. (I have noticed this online with go. People who brag about their go ability are predictably weak, for instance.)

That's pretty much all I know, so this is my last post on this subject.

EdLee · Post by **EdLee** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:55 pm

Bill and all,

pancake · Post by **pancake** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:10 pm

Sorry for not making a move today. I got a call this morning, asking me if I could play Dutch Go competition this evening. So I went there immediately after college and just arrived home (1.10 am). We won, by the way

Loons · Post by **Loons** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:34 pm

Very cool, please take your time making moves. Were Stalkor and Freegame at your tournament? (Every Dutch player I know of

).

No worries Bill, this has all been very educational.

pancake · Post by **pancake** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:22 pm

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Stalkor and Freegame where not there, Loons. It was not a tournament by the way, but a competition round. Our team (Groningen 1) against the team of Arnhem 1, which both have 3 players. HermanHiddema (that's his account on this forum, I believe) was board 1 for my team, he won his game as well.

Loons · Post by **Loons** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:53 am

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . 5 . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Post by **Solomon** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:13 am

It's an interesting opening already; if White restricts :b1:

's development with :w2:

, then B can play the Chinese opening which looks great with :b1:

.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . 1 . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

So I'd expect White to just do the standard approach at the bottom with R6 instead of :w2:

.

In this position, Takemiya Masaki played an interesting move:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 Takemiya Masaki 9p (W) vs. Takagi Shoichi 9p (B) $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 4 . . . . . , . . . . . 1 . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 8 . . | $$ | . . . 2 . . . . . 5 . . . . 9 6 7 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Also, pancake's avatar gets me every time.

pancake · Post by **pancake** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:06 am

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

I fail to see the benefits of the move he just played instead of first exchanging a for b. Maybe he's afraid I play something else and he doesn't get his kobayashi? Maybe he later wants to play b instead of a? I see no benefits from that, since he's trying to build something on the lower side. I also don't see any downsides, except that perhaps his lower side is smaller now.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . 5 . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . a . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . W . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

I also looked at this move, but it doesn't seem right. Later black has x, and I don't really have any good response. I also didn't like black making a shimari, so I decided to play corner approach that is usual when black has k4.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 6 W . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . 7 . . , 1 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . y . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

If he plays the joseki like this, now y is a nice point. since white has 4 in place now, it is not as severe when black caps y. I don't know if I would play y immediately though.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4 W . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 5 6 . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . . . . , . 2 . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X 7 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 O O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X O . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . . . . , . O . | $$ | . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . X X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

If he plays like this it will revert back to the normal kobayashi opening. Maybe he has a surprise for me though. Let's see what he wants!

Loons · Post by **Loons** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:57 pm

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm1 $$ +---------------------------------------+ $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . X . . . . . , 7 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

Life In 19x19

138. Pancake 4d vs Loons 1d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d

Re: 138. Loons 1d vs Pancake 4d