drmwc wrote:According to go4go, since the jubango started, the score in all games is 6-4 to Lee Sedol. (Gu Li won a couple not in the jubango, and Lee Seedol won 1 not in it.) This may or may not be sufficient evidence to abandon the 50% hypothesis.
While most of the modeling you all are talking about sounds too complex for me to make any comment on, I feel confident in saying this: Lee Sedol winning 6/10 games cannot possibly invalidate a 50% null hypothesis. That's only 1 more than expected!
In fact, the chance of getting exactly 5/10 wins (assuming a null hypothesis that each game is a coin toss) is only 24.6%. So there's over a 75% chance of getting a skew of 6/10 or more towards one or the other of them.
Applying the same reasoning towards just the Jubango games: Even with the null hypothesis that every game is a coin toss, the chance of one player being ahead at 5/7 or more is a whopping 45.3%! So this result really isn't too surprising even if you believe Gu Li and Lee Sedol are exactly evenly matched.
But you have to divide by two. It is not 'one player' that is ahead. It is one particular player. So the odds of this happening randomly are only about 23%.
Joaz Banbeck wrote:But you have to divide by two. It is not 'one player' that is ahead. It is one particular player. So the odds of this happening randomly are only about 23%.
Are you sure we wouldn't be having this same conversation if Gu Li was 5:2 up?
Richard Feynman wrote:You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!
As we've said several times over at GGG, there was a curious interview with the sponsor on Baduk TV (from memory during game 2). In that interview Ni Zhanggen clearly said that he was entertaining the idea of extending the match by three games if the score reached 5-5.
However, Ni is being strangely coy about the whole thing, so we've avoided publishing it as 'news'. Personally I think it would be better for the players if there was some certainty here. Both of them should know at this stage whether Gu is fighting for a draw at best, or a possible (if remote) reversal.
While I am a huge Gu Li fan, I don't think he can win 3 games in a row vs Lee.. He did win 3 in a row somewhere between the jubango games but they were some minor tournaments I believe.
To win 3 games in a row in jubango vs Lee, unlikely.
